Findings

Twelve programs publish an award chart. For eight of them (Air Canada, Atmos, Hyatt, ANA, Qantas, SAS, Turkish and Wyndham), the price for at least one identical item changed between checks. Wyndham joined in October, when the Ramada Istanbul Old City went from 7,500 points a night to 30,000.

Some of that is in the fine print: several charts list a minimum "from" price, and Hyatt and ANA price by season. But a chart that only sets a floor doesn't tell you what you'll pay. Going the other way, British Airways publishes no chart and held every price steady in every check.

In currency terms, a chart is a peg: a public promise of a fixed price. For most of these programs the peg didn't hold.

Every trip is searched twice a month: about 60 days before travel and about 180 days before. Across 228 pairs in three rounds, the price in points was 6.5% lower when booking further ahead, the cash price was 2.4% lower, and each point bought 4.9% more.

It isn’t true everywhere: 90 pairs were worth more further ahead, 87 were worth less, and the rest didn’t move. The gain comes from prices in points falling further than cash prices.

China Southern's published award chart lists Guangzhou–Sydney economy at 40,000 miles. Every one of the six checks so far, in all three rounds and at both booking windows, came back at 50,000.

Either the chart is out of date or it isn't the price list the booking engine uses. Either way, a member reading the chart would under-budget this redemption by 10,000 miles.

Across three rounds, 27 of 120 business-class checks returned no award seat at all, against 6 of 240 in economy. For hotels, 20 of 168 checks failed: sold out, no reward room, or a site that wouldn't load or blocked the search.

A missing award never shows up in an average value per point, because there’s no price to average. That’s why missing prices are tracked separately.

Of 475 prices in points, 205 are exact multiples of 5,000. Among programs that publish a chart the share is 50%; among those that don't, 38%.

Round numbers are the sign of a fixed award chart. A price like 71,632 or 6,667 points is calculated from the cash fare instead. Which one a program uses is a pricing choice behavioral economists study in cash prices too, where the best-known case is prices ending in 99.

Air India, Korean Air, Cathay, Emirates, United, LATAM, Air Canada, British Airways and China Southern all require you to sign up before they'll display what a seat costs in miles.

That's a cost before the first redemption: you hand over an email address and enter a marketing funnel just to learn the price. The other eleven show award prices to anyone.

Thirteen hotel programs were screened for the index. Seven made it in. The other six fail before a single price can be compared.

Four convert points to cash at a fixed rate: Accor, Shangri-La, Taj and Meliá. Their "award price" is arithmetic on the cash price: Meliá held at 0.47¢ on every check before it was dropped. A program like that can't devalue unless it changes the conversion rate itself, so there's nothing to track month to month.

Two don't show award prices to members outside China: Jin Jiang WeHotel and H Rewards (Huazhu).

From September to October, the price in points rose 20.3% across the 152 trips priced in both months, while cash prices rose 7.9%. But the typical trip didn't move: 69 cost exactly the same, 58 cost more and 25 cost less.

Ten prices at least tripled: three at SAS, two each at Qantas and Wyndham, and one each at Etihad, American and Virgin Atlantic. Leave those ten out and the rise in points is 7.4%, about the same as cash.

An index is an average, so a few large jumps can carry it. That's why every trip is matched one to one, and every one of the ten has a screenshot behind it.

SAS priced the same Copenhagen–San Francisco economy seat at 381,140 points two months ahead and 30,000 six months ahead in August. In September both were 30,000. In October both were 386,124. The 30,000 fare carries the "SAS Bonus" mark in the screenshot. There's nothing in between: either the cheap award seat is for sale or it isn't.

American shows the same pattern closer to the date. Dallas–Mexico City booked six months ahead cost 9,500 points in all three months; booked two months ahead it went from 17,500 to 19,000 to 56,500.

It's the same rationing as the empty business-class searches: the saver price stays the same, but less is sold at it. For someone holding points, the risk isn't a slow rise. It's the cheap seat disappearing.

When the programs were screened in August, eight looked like they charged fixed prices. Six are airlines: Singapore, China Southern, Air India, Korean Air, Cathay and British Airways. Across three rounds, none of them changed the price of a single item.

The other two are hotel chains, and both moved. Wyndham held all four of its hotels steady for two months, then changed every one in October: Istanbul went from 7,500 points a night to 30,000, and Athens from 30,000 to 15,000. Hilton moved at two of its four: the Conrad Maldives has cost 160,000, 170,000 and 180,000 points a night.

A program that looks fixed when it's screened can still move later. That's why the index checks it every month instead of trusting the label.